How do they know the price of oil would go up?

if the monarchy of Saudia Arabia fell. It would seem to me a new democratic government would be thinking ok we will have to do some major works on hospitals schools and the like to get elected in elections to be in power and have the say in what happens. Which would mean they would increase the amount of oil for export. Or an I missing something here, besides for all they know the elections could resullt in a hung parliament and their could be an independent parliament member from a poor city looking for some things from the government to make the lives better of his electorate and he could do a Tony Gregory type deal with the Saudia Arabia version of Haughey for his vote.